3rd Quarter Real GDP Rate May Easily Reach 5% When It Is Released On Friday, October 26th! Here Is Why……..

The 3rd Quarter real GDP rate may easily reach 5% when the Advance (Initial) Estimate is released on Friday, October 26th (10 days before the November Election). The Atlanta Federal Reserve put out their first forecast today. It was 4.7%.

They will update it tomorrow and I anticipate it being over 5% because of the following that came out today:

From the article linked above:

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.5 in July, easily beating the 62.3 consensus forecast and hitting a 6-month high.

“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer started the third quarter in bullish form, with business activity supported by robust demand and output,” said Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators. “Both, like the headline index, registered 6-month highs and the majority of firms expect demand to increase further over Q3.”

New Orders and Production also recorded 6-month highs in July. Both indicators sit comfortably above the neutral-50 mark, up 8.0% and 10.6% on the year respectively, and continue to indicate demand remains strong.

Over half of firms reported being optimistic over the Q3, expecting demand to rose even higher than Q2, with only 13.7% expecting a decline. A little over one-in-four forecast no change while just under 6% were unsure.

From the article linked above:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index climbed higher to 127.4 (1985=100) in July, up from 127.1 in June. The Present Situation Index improved from 161.7 to 165.9.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions also improved further in July. Those stating business conditions are “good” rose from 37.2% to 38.0%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” fell from 11.5% to 10.1%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” gained from 40.4% to 43.1%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” was essentially unchanged at 15.0%.

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