1st Quarter Real GDP Will Be Released Tomorrow! I Am Predicting 2.2% but Also Stating Final Revision In June Will Be 2.7% & Here Is Why….

The Atlanta Federal Reserve put out their final prediction for the 1st Quarter real GDP that will be made available to the public tomorrow morning at 8:30 am.

You can find the release at the link below:

https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Keep in mind it will be revised for a 2nd time on Wednesday, May 30th and for a final time on Thursday, June 28th.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is predicting 2.0% real GDP for the 1st Quarter.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

However, the NY Federal Reserve made their final prediction on April 20th and are predicting 2.9% real GDP for the 1st Quarter.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html

There was some really good data released today about our trade deficit in the month of March.

From the article linked above:

Trade gap sinks to $68 billion in March, down 10.3% from $75.9 billion in prior month.

This was the first narrowing of the deficit in seven months and came in well below the $73.4 billion estimate of economists polled by MarketWatch.

Trade had been expected to be a drag on first-quarter growth because of the jump in imports in January and February, but the sharp narrowing of the deficit in March means that it will at least be much less of a negative.

VERY IMPORTANT

“If we’re right, GDP forecasts for the first quarter will be revised up by about half a percentage point.”

From the article linked above:

  • Analysts project growth of 2% after fourth quarter’s 2.9%
  • Rebound expected in coming months as tax cuts take hold

I would not be surprised if the initial release tomorrow comes in at 2.2% real GDP.

However, given the fact that we cut the deficit in our trade imbalance in March by 10.3%, we will see a final real GDP of 2.7% for the 1st Quarter of 2018. Once again that final release will occur on Thursday, June 28th.

Last year the 1st Quarter (2017) real GDP finalized at 1.2%. The initial release had real GDP for the 1st Quarter at 0.8%. BHO was still in office for 20 days in January of the 1st Quarter.

Our President was only able to begin MAGANomics by starting to cut regulations and beginning to expand the Energy Sector.

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