Larry Schweikart has provided an update on Voter Registration Changes from the Battleground States!
*Note: Voter numbers rise/fall monthly: in most cases both parties fall prior to the “hot” election time. These numbers are NET gains or losses. He cannot track voter registrations in states that do not register by party. These include VA, OH, GA, MI, MN, TX and WI.
**All numbers measured against Nov. 2016
AZ: For the first time since Nov. 2016, Democrats failed to increase. Republicans have increased every month. Republicans currently have gained 28,000 gross, but have a net 29,000 advantage.
CO: Still holding at Republicans minus -1,000. Interestingly, Independents are off big, minus -161 since Nov. 2016.
DE: Still holding at Republicans minus -1,000 and no real movement for several months.
FL: Republicans net plus +78,000 after a couple of months of slowing down. The Republican advantage since Nov. 2016 has accelerated.
IA: Republicans net plus +11,000 since Nov. 2017. Republicans already held a big advantage in 2016, now have a net 48,000 edge in registrations.
ME: Republicans minus -1,000. Virtually no change. Both parties lost about 10,000 off the rolls. This can be a PDJT state in 2020 but Republicans have to dig in.
NH: Republicans net plus +7,000. Still a good gain, but down just slightly from plus +8,400 late last year.
NC: Republicans net plus +70,000. Another state where Republicans are steady or gaining since Nov. 2016.
NM: Republicans plus +11,000. Democrats gained 1,000 back since Feb 2018 but nonetheless this is an important gain for Republicans. Still a ways to go to overcome the Democrat advantage but this moves NM into tossup territory if trends hold for 2020.
NV: Republicans net plus +38,000. Big movement! Nevada Democrats have lost a whopping 38,000 off their rolls since Nov. 2016.
PA: Republicans net plus +82,000. Significant improvement since 2016; slipped some from high of +105,000 in mid-2017. Democrats continue to lose voters in PA, down in real numbers of 127,000 since 2012.
CONCLUSION: No battleground state that PDJT won has seen an improvement in the net voter registration changes since Nov. 2016 for Democrats. There have been HUGE improvements for Republicans (NC, IA, FL, PA and AZ). Right now he would take NH in addition to his 306 Electoral Votes from 2016. NM and NV are too close to call. PDJT’s margins in NC, PA and FL would be much larger.
In states PDJT lost (CO, DE, ME) there have been extremely minor changes. In both AZ and IA, red states, the Republican majorities have grown (so much for “Muh Blue Wave” in AZ). FL is within range of being a red state by 2020, or dead even.