As we continue to march closer to the November Midterms, I want to share some important information with you.
Richard Baris from PPD polling put out this information earlier today. Keep in mind he predicted our President winning FL by 1.8 points (actually won by 1.2 points) and MI & PA a day before the Presidential Election.
From the article linked above:
While media pundits and forecasters are overly confident, some Democratic strategists are beginning to voice their doubts.
Robin Biro said Thursday on Fox News that he was “a realist” and even though he’d love to be optimistic about the party’s chances, “we’re not there yet.” He correctly noted that Democrats would need to win the national congressional vote by a margin they’ve not received in roughly 40 years.
Historically, the generic ballot has overstated support for the Democratic Party in all but two midterm elections since 1966. Below is a graph displaying each midterm election cycle and the number of points by which polling either overstated or understated support for Congressional Democrats nationwide.
In only two cycles — 1986 and 1990 — Democrats didn’t underperform their support indicated by the generic ballot. Further, in only one of those cycles (1990), did Democrats outperform, albeit by a meager two points. In 1986, the polling was right on the money.
Here is another fantastic article that Richard references in his above! This Blue Wave 🌊 is such a damn myth. The man that wrote the article below has this tweet at the top of his twitter feed:
From the article linked above:
Popular punditry predicts a Democratic wave in the upcoming midterms. As I usually have, I will be betting against them. Here are a few reasons why.
Remember this above all: the Democrats need to improve on their last midterm popular vote margin by 13 to 14 points, and such a massive shift has only occurred when a realignment of a large group of voters occurred. The “enthusiasm gap” matters, but it averages to about a 5 point swing, nowhere near enough to give the Democrats Congress in 2018.
The norm is only a swing of about a 5 point loss for the Presidential party. This is the popularly discussed “enthusiasm gap” which is real, and recurs in most midterm elections. The anger of the party-out-of-presidential-power tends to trump the satisfied mindset of the party-in-presidential-power voters in terms of turnout. That said, that kind of swing —5 to 6 points in the margin — is too small to create the kind of wave Democrats need in 2018.
Note: a change of 14 points or more between midterms has only occurred 2 times in 19 midterms, and in both cases major realignments occurred: in 1994, evangelicals left the Democratic Congressional party en masse; and in 2010, Jacksonian America in Appalachia and the upper south left the Democratic Congressional party en masse.
From the 1930s until 2010, the Democrats enjoyed a demographic edge in midterm elections due to one key factor: age. The older a voter, the more likely they were a Democratic loyalist. No more. Now, as you scale the age spectrum, the more Republican the voter group. Democrats depend upon historically high turnout of historically low turnout groups — millennial and minorities — to win back Congressional control, a simply improbable outcome from a historical perspective.
Without war, recession, resignation or realignment, the pollsters, pundits, and professional predictors look likely to get it wrong again in 2018. Don’t bet on a Democratic Congress in 2018. At 3-2 odds, my money is on the other side.