This Tax Reform Bill is so HUGE! I have been reading about the election last night in Alabama. Beyond Roy Moore being a flawed candidate, many Republican and Independent voters are at a point that they will not show up to vote because they see absolutely nothing being accomplished by the Republicans in Congress. One can’t blame them for having that attitude. They have voted Republicans in 2010, 12′, 14′ and 16′. After 2016 with the House, Senate and White House having a Republican majority and President, Repeal and Replace went up in flames.
The killer with the Repeal and Replace was the fact that Republicans had lied to their constituents. Every single vote taken during the Obama Presidency was just a “Show Vote”. When they finally had a chance to vote with our President in the WH, 3 of those same Republicans that had voted for repealing Obamacare changed their vote and their position (Lucifer, Murkowski and to a lesser extent Collins).
The Tax Reform Bill will have a big time effect in 2019 and especially 2020 once it truly kicks in. However, Republicans can jump on our President’s back and claim that the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Quarter GDP results in 2018 was because of them. I have every expectation in the world that we will see GDPs at our above 4% in those 3 Quarters. As they are campaigning they can run on that fact. More importantly, Republicans that will run against the Incumbent Democrat Senators will be able to claim that the sitting Senator has been opposed to everything that the President has tried to pass.
That will be a fact in states that our President won in 2016 (MT, MO, IN, WI, MI, FL, PA, ND, WV and OH) as well as in 3 states where the right Republican candidate can be competitive in; NJ, ME and VA. It will also be a big boost in states where we are vulnerable in; AZ, NV and to a lesser extent TX.
Getting our majority in the Senate to reach 54 or 55 is so critical in 2018. Keeping our majority in the House is as well. One of the exit poll data that I paid close attention to last night was which items brought you out to vote. The Economy and Healthcare were even at 27%. Being able to use reconciliation again with the 2019 budget is critical. Getting the majorities I described above will allow us to have enough votes to get 50 Republicans in the Senate to vote in favor of the Graham/Cassidy Bill.
The best thing about the Graham/Cassidy Bill is that it takes Healthcare off of the docket since it is completely returned to the states. it will no longer be a Federal Government issue and will not play such an important roll in the 2020 election. It actually kills the Democrat platform when they run their candidate against our President. They will say vote for us so that we can get Single Payer. Our President will completely destroy that narrative because it is now a state issue and would involve taxes to be increased through the roof in order to pay for it.