2018 Is Going To Be A Bloodbath For the Democrats In the Senate Because Of the Money the RNC Is Raising & the Number Of New Republicans……

The most exciting piece for me is that Ronna McDaniel is the head of the RNC. She is all in when it comes to our President. Every single penny that is spent has a purpose to it. It is to MAGA. I also love that Steve Wynn is the Treasurer. We have a real good chance of winning the Governor’s race in Virginia. That would be huge because the Democrats will win back NJ. Those are the only two Governor races in the upcoming election.

The Establishment Republicans fear the power of our President’s fundraising. The other thing they hate is that Ronna will not spend a dime in a primary. That is a killer for people like Flake, Wicker, Heller etc. They don’t get to eat from that money.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article179293446.html

From the article linked above:

The RNC had raised $93.3 million with $47.1 million cash on hand while the DNC raised $46.3 million and had $6.8 million cash on hand.

Keep in mind that every donation that is made directly to our President, the RNC gets 20% of it. Ronna will go after the 13 Democrat seats in the Senate next year. Ten of those Democrat Senators come from States our President won. The other three are Maine (King), Virginia (Kaine) and NJ (Menendez if he is found innocent).

We will pick off 6 to 8 of those seats and win with Ward and Tarkanian in AZ and NV!

Just as important as the money is the data trend from last November up unti now in terms of Republican registered voters versus Democrat registered voters in those Senate races I mentioned above. The picture is becoming more and more a beautiful RED!

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/data-blue-states-getting-redder-red-states-getting-redder/

From the article linked above:

October’s voter registration changes measured against last November continue to show Republican strength, almost across the board. Certainly in the “battleground” states, the Democrats are looking at a very bleak picture. A reminder that these are net changes—some states have seen voter registration increases, some decreases as rolls are purged—but the key is the net gain or loss of one party against the other. Also, keep in mind Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas and Georgia, to name a few, do not register by party so it is impossible to track the changes in those states. However, with that in mind . . . .

*AZ Rs net +11,160
Both parties gained, and the Republican edge was down slightly from last look, but still holding very strong. So much for Arizona “going purple.” If this rate of changes holds, Arizona Republicans could have a net gain of an additional 25,000 voters by election time in 2018.

*FL Rs net +61,857 Since the election, Republicans have seen a net shift of nearly 62,000 in their direction. This represents a further net gain of about 6,000 since my last report, meaning that Republicans are gaining ground at the rate of about 6,000 per month. If this were to hold through 2020, Florida would be a Republican state.

*IA Rs net +70,801 Democrats can pretty well forget about Iowa, a state Obama carried and George W. Bush lost. This massive level of change bodes extremely well for neighboring Wisconsin and Minnesota, where we cannot track these changes, but which have some of the same demographics.

*NC Rs net +61,752 This is up another 1,000 since last month, and shows the Tar Heel State continues to turn back to the Republican Party as the Democrats are losing significant registrations. When combined with the 2016 3% black voting shortfall, North Carolina presents another bleak picture for the Democrats in the near future.

*NM Rs net +12,975 New Mexico continues its Republican trend, up 165 over last month. But every month has shown steady net Republican gains. Given that there likely won’t be a Gary Johnson in the race in 2020, New Mexico is absolutely in the toss up column right now, and by 2020 could be lean Republican.

*NV Rs net +8,338 Since the last report, Republicans gained another net 600. Yet another state where Republicans are slowly and steadily chipping away at the Democrat registration advantage, and another state where Johnson won’t be around to bail out the Democrat.

And the biggie:
*PA Rs net +109,101 Pennsylvania’s shocking march away from the Democrats is breathtaking: Democrats were down another 22,000 since last month and Republicans are surging. Once again, Pennsylvania’s numbers likely speak to Michigan.

And, a reminder that in my last report, NH was R net +6,511 and ME was R net +1,201.

In short, among the truly contested states in 2016, the only ray of hope for the Democrats is Colorado, and even there, the trends have flattened some. They have stabilized New Jersey and Delaware, but Republicans continue to gain significant ground in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and above all, Pennsylvania. If these trends continue through 2020, Florida would be have a slight Republican registration edge, North Carolina would be nearly even, and New Mexico would be close enough that it could never be taken for granted. Moreover, Pennsylvania and Iowa would be solid Trump states.

The remarkable thing about the Republican trending states is that they have moved steadily ever since last November, in almost every case without a single break. Democrats continue to lose voters, and they are not becoming independents. All of this appears to be due to Trump and Trump alone, as the Republican Party has not offered any reasons to embrace it.

 

9 thoughts on “2018 Is Going To Be A Bloodbath For the Democrats In the Senate Because Of the Money the RNC Is Raising & the Number Of New Republicans……

  1. A few random thoughts.

    I believe it’s 23 (not 13) Demoncratic senators up in 2018; with (as you said) ten of them in Trump states.

    It would take some MAJOR bad news for Trump, bad enough to make his base abandon him, for the Dems to avert disaster. (Or, possibly, universal disgust with every R except Trump and a lot of failures to primary the RINOs.) They are in full ‘fling poop at the fan and hope some of it sticks wherever it lands” mode because of this. Depending on the smell, of course, it’s possible only one piece will have to stick. Botched hurricane relief did it to GWB which is why they tried so hard with Puerto Rico.

    I was hoping to put a Republican in the governor’s mansion here in CO next year but you’re not making it sound likely.

    PS I sent you an email on a totally unrelated (other than it’s political) topic.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Perhaps not…but it seems our work is definitely cut out for us.

        I still remember when we had a large democrat minority but were fairly reliably republican in the presidential races. (Though we’ve always been mixed at best in the governor’s mansion and US senate) Heck, in 1984 we elected a veto-proof republican legislature!

        It’s ironic, because on the morning of the election, I downloaded two maps of predictions on which way states would go, and one of them gave CO to Trump because the early vote looked promising for him. (I think you did something similar with Florida…only it seems you’re better at it!)

        (Sidebar: The polls were a lot closer than we give them credit for. They just asked the wrong question. Many of them predicted the popular vote as counted pretty well. On a state by state basis, Nate Silverberg did very well in 2012 getting only one state wrong (going to his map that called statistical ties for whomever was even slightly ahead). In 2016 even though he was showing healthy popular vote margins for Hitlary Rotten Klinton, that same page showed a 272-266 win for Hitlary–pretty doggone close as a race goes, and I went to the victory party cautiously optimistic. Trump only had to flip New Hampshire to win.

        Well, he didn’t flip New Hampshire, but he got Wisconsin. (Wisconsin was called much earlier on Fox than it was on NBC, those were the two networks being shown.) That was the first surprise for me with the Silver map in my hands. Then Trump didn’t get Nevada, so now he was up 4 over Silver’s prediction. If he got everything else right, Trump would win.

        Of course we know that Trump–soon to be President Elect Trump–also got Michigan and Pennsylvania. So Silver called four states wrong this time around, and I believe that would be due to late surges since DJT was campaigning hard in those states.

        By now you’re probably protesting that the *real* popular vote would have favored DJT. I don’t think that’s certain, only likely, But this “real” popular vote isn’t the one that went in the books, and the less whacky polls predicted pretty well what actually went into the books. It’s just a darned good thing that all of that popular vote margin was in CA, instead of flipping a few other states, like oh, say, MI, WI, and PA.)

        Liked by 1 person

      2. There’s something to be said for that. However, the left is simply going to push that much harder to either eliminate or bypass the Electoral College. (Bypass it by getting states with more than 270 votes total to simply award their votes to the PV winner…not whoever won in their state. That’s a movement going on right now.)

        I’d love for strong evidence to come out of the whole margin being fraudulent votes. But I’ll settle for doing a lot to cut down on them in the future. Unfortunately, I don’t see what can be done about CA and other recalcitrant states.

        Liked by 1 person

      3. There is no way that the smaller states will give up that power that they currently get for each Presidential Election. The Left and Democrats can pray all they want because we will never see that day.

        Liked by 1 person

      4. The end run I described would not involve amending the constitution–which, I agree, wouldn’t happen (absent some really Big Event that stampedes everyone). It would only require enough big states to total 270 votes doing it.

        Liked by 1 person

      5. I haven’t a clue; but they’re halfway there, I understand. Whatever the likelihood is, it’s too doggone high.

        It’s dangerous because a lot of states can pass this with the initiative process and it looks good and warm and fuzzy to a lot of voters.

        Liked by 1 person

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