The CBO Will Never Score A Repeal and Replace With Less Than 22 Million Americans Losing Insurance

This is an incredible explanation of the fallacy, lie, BS behind the CBO scoring (there is nothing the Republicans can do, no amount of money that will effect the CBO from stating that 16 million Americans will lose their coverage as soon as BCRA is signed into law). The truth is that maybe 6 million would no longer have coverage after 2026 if that.

In the video below, Avik Roy, from The Foundation For Research On Equal Opportunity, does an incredible job defending the Repeal and Replace Bill (BCRA). He explains the fallacy of the CBO score. He also explains what will happen for the Medicaid expansion states (31 total) and their constituents that have healthcare coverage because of the expansion. 85% to 95% of approximately $200 billion (newest offer by McConnell to the Republican Medicaid Whores) will be used for those individuals that will lose their insurance because the expansion of Medicaid will be eliminated will have tax credits to purchase their private insurance (this will help offset costs). He also does a terrific job of sharing what the Cruz Amendment will do for cost and how it actually offsets costs for everyone (those that need Obamacare coverage and those that don’t).

From the article linked above:

If you’ve read a newspaper or watched cable news in the last month, you’ve probably seen someone say that the Senate GOP health care bill would “kick 22 million Americans off of their health insurance.” But it’s not true. New information from the Congressional Budget Office—leaked to me by a congressional staffer—shows why.

And there’s a more fundamental question: if Obamacare’s insurance is so wonderful, why do millions of Americans need to be forced to buy it? By definition, you haven’t been “kicked off” your insurance if the only reason you’re no longer buying it is that the government has stopped fining you.

Arguably the most significant data point in the entire debate about the Senate health care bill has been the CBO’s claim that in 2026, 22 million fewer people would have health insurance under the Senate bill than under Obamacare.

Democrats have seized on this number to stoke fears about the bill’s impact; moderate Republicans, intimidated by the negative headlines, have been reluctant to support the bill.

The CBO’s love affair with the individual mandate is the reason why there’s really nothing Republican senators can do to improve the CBO’s coverage score of their bill. It doesn’t matter how much money Republicans throw at the problem; if you don’t have an individual mandate, CBO assumes 16 million fewer people will have coverage right off the bat.

To be clear, even if one excludes the CBO’s exaggerated view of the impact of the individual mandate, CBO scores the Senate bill as covering 6 million fewer people than Obamacare in 2026: 2 percent of the U.S. population. But even that number can be partially explained by CBO’s outdated March 2016 baseline, which assumes that enrollment in Obamacare’s exchanges peaks out at 19 million, when it’s more likely to end up below 9 million, if Obamacare stays on the books and premiums continue to rise.


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